量化分析锂供需与锂价格的联动关系

doi:10.19964/j.issn.1006-4990.2022-0235

Abstract

Abstract:

The global energy transition is advancing rapidly，and the development of electric vehicles as the representative of energy transition is in full swing.As the critical material for electric vehicle batteries，the price of lithium has been sky?rocketing in recent years，hitting a high price of more than 500 000 RMB per ton in March 2022，more than 10 times of the lowest price in 2020.Kinds of lithium minerals and their chemical composition，lithium resources and reserves，lithium extraction methods，lithium applications and the main increase driving ones，lithium supply and demand in the world and in China are introduced.According to China's lithium supply and demand from January 2019 to February 2022，comparing with the changes in lithium prices during this period，and combining economic terms，linkage between China's lithium supply and demand and price is discussed.It is concluded that the supply and demand fundamentals determine the price of lithium，and the price of lithium determines the future supply and demand structure of lithium.In the upward stage of price，due to the“bullwhip effect”and hype，the price of lithium fluctuates too much.Finally，suggestions are put forward to prevent excessive fluctuations in lithium prices and to promote the healthy development of the lithium supply chain:1）strengthen the development of domestic lithium resources and reduce overseas dependence to ensure that the supply of lithium could meet the rapidly increasing demand；2）Increase the transparency of lithium supply and demand and reduce the difference between demand and actual consumption to avoid excessive price fluctuations；3）Establish a national lithium collection and storage mechanism to collect and store lithium when the supply of lithium is greater than the demand，so as to avoid the excessive decline of prices，and release the stored lithium when the supply of lithium is less than the demand，so as to curb the excessive rise of prices；4）Upstream and downstream enterprises in the lithium supply chain strengthen their risk awareness and reasonably use derivatives tools to hedge the risks caused by the sharp fluctuations in lithium prices.

Key words: lithium resources, lithium supply, lithium demand, lithium price, lithium extraction method

CLC Number:

P618.71

WANG Ping. Quantitative analysis of linkage between lithium supply and demand and lithium price[J]. Inorganic Chemicals Industry, 2022, 54(9): 1-13.

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盐湖卤水来源	m（Mg²⁺）/ m（Li⁺）	主要成分质量分数/%
盐湖卤水来源	m（Mg²⁺）/ m（Li⁺）	Li⁺	Na⁺	K⁺	B³⁺	Mg²⁺	Ca²⁺	Cl^-	SO₄^2-
玻利维亚乌尤尼（Uyuni，Bolivia）	20.249	0.032	7.06	1.17	0.071	0.650	0.030 6	5.00	—
智利阿塔卡玛（Atacama，Chile）	6.146	0.157	9.10	2.36	0.040	0.965	0.045	18.95	1.59
阿根廷翁布雷穆埃尔托（Hombre Muerto，Argentina）	1.371	0.062	9.789	0.617	0.035	0.085	0.053	15.80	0.853
美国瑟尔斯湖（Searles Lake，USA）	—	0.005	11.08	2.53	—	—	0.001 6	12.30	4.61
美国银峰（Silver Peak，USA）	6.667	0.006	6.20	0.80	—	0.040	0.050	10.06	0.71
以色列死海（Dead Sea，Israel）	2 575.0	0.001	3.01	0.56	0.030	3.090	1.290	16.10	0.061
中国扎布耶（Zabuye，China）	0.053	0.049	7.29	1.66	—	0.003	0.010 6	9.53	—
中国西台吉乃尔（Taiji'naier，China）	65.161	0.031	5.63	0.44	—	2.020	0.020	13.42	3.41
中国一里坪（Yiliping，China）	60.950	0.021	2.58	0.91	0.031	1.280	0.016	14.97	2.88
中国察尔汗（Qarhan，China）	1 577.4	0.003	2.37	1.25	0.009	4.890	0.051	18.80	0.44
中国大柴旦（Da Qaidan，China）	133.75	0.016	6.92	0.71	0.062	2.140	—	14.64	4.05

矿物名称	化学式	硬度	w（Li₂O）/%	密度/（g·cm^-3）
锂辉石（spodumene）	LiAlSi₂O₆	5.9~7.6	3.1~3.2	6~7
透锂长石（petalite）	LiAlSi₄O₁₀	2.0~4.1	2.3~2.5	6.0~6.5
锂霞石（eucryptite）	LiAlSiO₄	6.1	2.6	6.5
锂云母（lepidolite）	K（Li，Al）₃（Si，Al）₄O₁₀（F，OH）₂	3.2~5.7	2.8~3.3	2~4
铁锂云母（zinnwaldite）	K（Li，Fe，Al）₃（Si，Al）₄O₁₀（F，OH）₂	2.9~4.5	2.9~3.3	2~4

类型/产地	主要化学组成质量分数/%
类型/产地	Li₂O	SiO₂	Al₂O₃	Fe₂O₃	K₂O	Na₂O	MgO	CaO	TiO₂	P₂O₅
河南含锂黏土矿	0.50	37.88	43.50	1.49	2.13	0.82	0.41	0.42	2.38	0.13
贵州含锂铝质岩	0.09	25.33	51.27	2.61	0.06	—	0.59	0.14	2.31	0.48
碳酸盐型锂矿	0.68	33.06	48.01	1.07	3.88	0.09	0.46	0.03	2.25	0.12
McDermitt黏土	1.29	53.00	5.86	3.57	4.46	0.78	15.00	2.25	—	—
McDermitt A	0.77	53.05	2.83	0.76	0.20	0.80	20.00	1.58	—	—
McDermitt B	1.37	53.48	7.56	2.71	5.66	0.24	12.83	1.82	—	—
尼日利亚黏土	0.58	51.60	43.20	1.06	0.24	0.87	—	0.87	—	—
埃及黏土	1.20	54.70	5.20	4.30	5.20	1.10	12.40	4.10	—	—

顺序	阿塔卡玛盐湖夏季卤水蒸发析盐
1	NaCl
2	NaCl+KCl
3	NaCl+KCl+LiKSO₄
4	NaCl+KCl+LiKSO₄+KCl ? MgCl₂? 6H₂O
5	NaCl+KCl+LiKSO₄+KCl ? MgSO₄? 2.75H₂O
6	NaCl+KCl+LiKSO₄
7	NaCl+KCl ? MgSO₄? 2.75H₂O + Li₂SO₄? H₂O
8	NaCl+KCl+Li₂SO₄? H₂O+KCl ? MgCl₂? 6H₂O

National Inorganic Salts Information Center

Inorganic Acid-Base-Salt Committee of CIESC

Quantitative analysis of linkage between lithium supply and demand and lithium price

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