关键词: 纯碱出口, 纯碱产量, 纯碱消费量, 预测

Abstract: As the largest soda ash production and consumption country and the second largest exporter in the world，the changes of the China′s export capacity has a profound impact on the world market.So it′s very important for China to research the its soda export capacity.Firstly，a model，which was established after analyzing the disadvantages of the current forecast models，was applied to establish multivariate linear regression model to forecast soda ash′s output.Besides，the soda ash′s consumption was predicted by GM（1，N） model.At last，the changes of China′s export capacity were analyzed，and the forecast result showed that China′s soda ash export capacity has a great potential.Based on the future trends of China′s soda ash export capacity，the effects of the changes of China′s soda ash export capacity on the world′s soda ash market were analyzed prioritizedly.It also pointed out that China′s steady growth in soda ash export will play an important role to balance the contradiction between supply and demand of China′s soda ash market and will vigorously promote the free trade degree of world′s soda ash market. 

Key words: soda ash export, soda ash output, soda ash consumption, forecast