量化分析锂供需与锂价格的联动关系
收稿日期: 2022-05-27
网络出版日期: 2022-09-22
Quantitative analysis of linkage between lithium supply and demand and lithium price
Received date: 2022-05-27
Online published: 2022-09-22
全球能源转型快速推进,作为能源转型代表的电动汽车的发展如火如荼。锂作为电动汽车电池的基础原材料,近年价格快速上涨,在2022年3月创下超过50万元/t的高价,超过2020年最低价的10倍。介绍了全球锂资源的存在形式及化学组成、锂资源量和锂储量,各种锂资源的提锂方法,锂供应来源和供应量,锂的用途、主要增长领域及需求量,以及中国所需锂的来源和主要增长领域。根据2019年1月至2022年2月中国锂供应量和锂需求量,对照此期间的锂价格变化,结合经济学术语论述中国锂供应量和需求量与价格的联动关系,得出结论:锂供需基本面决定锂价格、锂价格决定未来锂供需结构。在价格上行阶段,由于存在“牛鞭效应”及炒作,导致锂价格过大波动。最后提出防止锂价格过大波动、促进锂产业链健康发展的建议:1)加大国内锂资源开发力度,减少对外依存度,确保锂的供应能够满足快速增长的需求;2)加大锂供需透明度,减少需求量与实际消耗量的差异,避免价格过度波动;3)建立国家锂收储机制,在锂供应量大于需求量时进行收储,避免价格过渡下跌,在锂供应量小于需求量时释放储存锂,以抑制价格过渡上涨;4)锂产业链上下游企业加强风险意识,合理运用衍生品工具进行套期保值,以对冲锂价格大幅波动带来的风险。
王平 . 量化分析锂供需与锂价格的联动关系[J]. 无机盐工业, 2022 , 54(9) : 1 -13 . DOI: 10.19964/j.issn.1006-4990.2022-0235
The global energy transition is advancing rapidly,and the development of electric vehicles as the representative of energy transition is in full swing.As the critical material for electric vehicle batteries,the price of lithium has been sky⁃rocketing in recent years,hitting a high price of more than 500 000 RMB per ton in March 2022,more than 10 times of the lowest price in 2020.Kinds of lithium minerals and their chemical composition,lithium resources and reserves,lithium extraction methods,lithium applications and the main increase driving ones,lithium supply and demand in the world and in China are introduced.According to China's lithium supply and demand from January 2019 to February 2022,comparing with the changes in lithium prices during this period,and combining economic terms,linkage between China's lithium supply and demand and price is discussed.It is concluded that the supply and demand fundamentals determine the price of lithium,and the price of lithium determines the future supply and demand structure of lithium.In the upward stage of price,due to the“bullwhip effect”and hype,the price of lithium fluctuates too much.Finally,suggestions are put forward to prevent excessive fluctuations in lithium prices and to promote the healthy development of the lithium supply chain:1)strengthen the development of domestic lithium resources and reduce overseas dependence to ensure that the supply of lithium could meet the rapidly increasing demand;2)Increase the transparency of lithium supply and demand and reduce the difference between demand and actual consumption to avoid excessive price fluctuations;3)Establish a national lithium collection and storage mechanism to collect and store lithium when the supply of lithium is greater than the demand,so as to avoid the excessive decline of prices,and release the stored lithium when the supply of lithium is less than the demand,so as to curb the excessive rise of prices;4)Upstream and downstream enterprises in the lithium supply chain strengthen their risk awareness and reasonably use derivatives tools to hedge the risks caused by the sharp fluctuations in lithium prices.
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